Over 1.5 goals@1.24
Over 1.5
80%
JPNJ2 League · Matchday 13Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Denka Big Swan Stadium
Albirex Niigata
2nd · 26 pts2–1FULL TIME
Vegalta Sendai
1st · 27 pts24% Albirex
23% Draw
53% Vegalta
OUR PICK
Vegalta Sendai to win
Model probability 53% · fair odds
1.89
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.84
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.10X4.3821.89
Goals 2.5Over1.72Under2.25
Both scoreGG1.72NG2.25
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.72
Over 2.5
58%
Both teams to score@1.72
GG
58%
Double chance@1.30
12
77%
Season stats
Albirex NiigataVegalta Sendai1.5Goals per game1.6
1.7Conceded per game0.9
1.86Points per game1.93
57%Win rate57%
-3Goal difference10
7Form, last 5 (pts)7
Albirex Niigata form
LWWLDH Kataller Toyama2–3
H Vegalta Sendai2–1
H Sagan Tosu2–1
A Oita Trinita5–1
A Shonan Bellmare1–1
Vegalta Sendai form
LLWDWH Omiya Ardija1–2
A Albirex Niigata2–1
H Imabari3–1
H Tokushima Vortis0–0
A Montedio Yamagata0–1
Head to head
3
Albirex
2
Draw
0
Vegalta
Oct 2026Albirex Niigata – Vegalta Sendai2–1
Oct 2022Albirex Niigata – Vegalta Sendai3–0
Feb 2022Vegalta Sendai – Albirex Niigata0–0
Apr 2018Albirex Niigata – Vegalta Sendai3–1
Mar 2018Vegalta Sendai – Albirex Niigata1–1
J2 League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vegalta Sendai14+1027
2Albirex Niigata14-326
3Kataller Toyama14+1225
4Yokohama FC14+1025
5Omiya Ardija14+824
6Tegevajaro Miyazaki14+523
7Shonan Bellmare14+222
8Iwaki14+320
9Consadole Sapporo14-220
10Oita Trinita14+519
Match preview
Our model makes Vegalta Sendai slight favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.89 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.18 for Albirex Niigata, 1.84 for Vegalta Sendai), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Albirex Niigata sit 2nd on 26 points; Vegalta Sendai are 1st on 27.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.