Over 1.5 goals@1.50
Over 1.5
66%
JPNJ2 League · Matchday 9Saturday, 3 October 2026 · Denka Big Swan Stadium
Albirex Niigata
2nd · 26 pts2–1FULL TIME
Tokushima Vortis
14th · 17 pts41% Albirex
28% Draw
30% Tokushima
OUR PICK
Albirex Niigata to win
Model probability 41% · fair odds
2.42
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.03
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.42X3.5323.29
Goals 2.5Over2.36Under1.66
Both scoreGG2.05NG1.85
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.66
Under 2.5
60%
Both teams to score@1.85
NG
54%
Double chance@1.39
12
72%
Season stats
Albirex NiigataTokushima Vortis1.5Goals per game0.8
1.7Conceded per game1.0
1.86Points per game1.21
57%Win rate36%
-3Goal difference-3
7Form, last 5 (pts)4
Albirex Niigata form
No recent matches.
Tokushima Vortis form
LWLDLH Yokohama FC0–1
A Fujieda MYFC0–1
H Vanraure Hachinohe0–1
A Vegalta Sendai0–0
H Imabari1–2
Head to head
2
Albirex
2
Draw
1
Tokushima
Oct 2026Albirex Niigata – Tokushima Vortis2–1
May 2026Albirex Niigata – Tokushima Vortis1–0
Feb 2026Tokushima Vortis – Albirex Niigata4–0
Aug 2022Albirex Niigata – Tokushima Vortis2–2
Jun 2022Tokushima Vortis – Albirex Niigata1–1
J2 League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vegalta Sendai14+1027
2Albirex Niigata14-326
3Kataller Toyama14+1225
4Yokohama FC14+1025
5Omiya Ardija14+824
6Tegevajaro Miyazaki14+523
7Shonan Bellmare14+222
8Iwaki14+320
9Consadole Sapporo14-220
10Oita Trinita14+519
Match preview
Our model makes Albirex Niigata slight favourites, giving them a 41% chance of winning against 28% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.42 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (1.25 for Albirex Niigata, 1.03 for Tokushima Vortis), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Albirex Niigata sit 2nd on 26 points; Tokushima Vortis are 14th on 17.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.