Over 1.5 goals@1.33
Over 1.5
75%
JPNJ2 League · Matchday 12Wednesday, 21 October 2026 · Denka Big Swan Stadium
Albirex Niigata
2nd · 26 pts2–1FULL TIME
Sagan Tosu
13th · 17 pts43% Albirex
26% Draw
32% Sagan
OUR PICK
Albirex Niigata to win
Model probability 43% · fair odds
2.34
Expected goals
1.47 – 1.23
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.34X3.9123.16
Goals 2.5Over1.98Under1.93
Both scoreGG1.83NG2.05
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.98
Over 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.83
GG
54%
Double chance@1.34
12
74%
Season stats
Albirex NiigataSagan Tosu1.5Goals per game1.0
1.7Conceded per game1.2
1.86Points per game1.21
57%Win rate36%
-3Goal difference-3
7Form, last 5 (pts)9
Albirex Niigata form
DLWWLA Ventforet Kofu0–0
H Kataller Toyama2–3
H Vegalta Sendai2–1
H Sagan Tosu2–1
A Oita Trinita5–1
Sagan Tosu form
DLLWLA Shonan Bellmare0–0
A Jubilo Iwata2–0
H Kawasaki Frontale0–2
H Vanraure Hachinohe2–0
A Albirex Niigata2–1
Head to head
2
Albirex
1
Draw
2
Sagan
Oct 2026Albirex Niigata – Sagan Tosu2–1
Jul 2024Albirex Niigata – Sagan Tosu3–4
Feb 2024Sagan Tosu – Albirex Niigata1–2
Oct 2023Albirex Niigata – Sagan Tosu1–1
May 2023Sagan Tosu – Albirex Niigata2–0
J2 League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vegalta Sendai14+1027
2Albirex Niigata14-326
3Kataller Toyama14+1225
4Yokohama FC14+1025
5Omiya Ardija14+824
6Tegevajaro Miyazaki14+523
7Shonan Bellmare14+222
8Iwaki14+320
9Consadole Sapporo14-220
10Oita Trinita14+519
Match preview
Our model makes Albirex Niigata slight favourites, giving them a 43% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.34 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.47 for Albirex Niigata, 1.23 for Sagan Tosu), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Albirex Niigata sit 2nd on 26 points; Sagan Tosu are 13th on 17.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.