Over 1.5 goals@1.45
Over 1.5
69%
URUPrimera División · Clausura - 9Saturday, 3 October 2026 · Estadio Luis Franzini
Albion FC
8th · 46 pts3–2FULL TIME
Defensor Sporting
11th · 39 pts49% Albion
27% Draw
24% Defensor
OUR PICK
Albion FC to win
Model probability 49% · fair odds
2.03
Expected goals
1.46 – 0.94
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.03X3.7724.12
Goals 2.5Over2.19Under1.76
Both scoreGG2.01NG1.88
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.76
Under 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.88
NG
53%
Double chance@1.32
1X
76%
Season stats
Albion FCDefensor Sporting1.4Goals per game1.0
1.3Conceded per game1.2
1.35Points per game1.11
38%Win rate26%
3Goal difference-8
12Form, last 5 (pts)4
Albion FC form
WWLWWA Central Espanol1–3
H Atletico Torque2–1
A Deportivo Maldonado4–1
A Cerro Largo0–1
H Defensor Sporting3–2
Defensor Sporting form
WDLLLA Progreso0–2
H Racing Montevideo3–3
A Boston River1–0
H Cerro2–3
A Albion FC3–2
Head to head
2
Albion
1
Draw
2
Defensor
Oct 2026Albion FC – Defensor Sporting3–2
Mar 2026Defensor Sporting – Albion FC1–1
Oct 2022Defensor Sporting – Albion FC2–0
May 2022Albion FC – Defensor Sporting0–3
Sept 2021Defensor Sporting – Albion FC0–1
Primera División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Penarol35+2465
2Atletico Torque35+1863
3Deportivo Maldonado34+2262
4Club Nacional35+1161
5Racing Montevideo35+1460
6Liverpool Montevideo34+1456
7Wanderers35-251
8Albion FC34+346
9Juventud34-441
10Central Espanol35-1341
Match preview
Our model makes Albion FC slight favourites, giving them a 49% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.03 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.46 for Albion FC, 0.94 for Defensor Sporting), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Albion FC sit 8th on 46 points; Defensor Sporting are 11th on 39.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.