Over 1.5 goals@1.29
Over 1.5
78%
ESPLa Liga · Matchday 10Friday, 23 October 2026 · Estadio de Mendizorroza
Alaves
11th · 12 pts1–1FULL TIME
Malaga
20th · 5 pts63% Alaves
21% Draw
16% Malaga
OUR PICK
Alaves to win
Model probability 63% · fair odds
1.58
Expected goals
1.98 – 0.87
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.58X4.7726.34
Goals 2.5Over1.85Under2.05
Both scoreGG2.00NG1.89
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.85
Over 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@2.00
GG
50%
Double chance@1.19
1X
84%
Season stats
AlavesMalaga1.4Goals per game0.7
1.5Conceded per game1.9
1.09Points per game0.45
27%Win rate0%
-2Goal difference-13
2Form, last 5 (pts)2
Alaves form
LDLLDA Barcelona6–1
H Malaga1–1
A Celta Vigo2–1
H Atletico Madrid1–2
A Athletic Club0–0
Malaga form
LWDLDA Real Betis2–1
A Alcazar0–3
A Alaves1–1
H Real Sociedad2–5
H Espanyol1–1
Head to head
3
Alaves
1
Draw
1
Malaga
Oct 2026Alaves – Malaga1–1
May 2023Alaves – Malaga2–1
Dec 2022Malaga – Alaves1–0
May 2018Malaga – Alaves0–3
Dec 2017Alaves – Malaga1–0
La Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Barcelona11+3430
2Atletico Madrid11+1428
3Real Madrid11+1827
4Real Betis11+323
5Real Sociedad11019
6Sevilla11-217
7Athletic Club10+415
8Deportivo La Coruna11+114
9Villarreal11012
10Celta Vigo11012
Match preview
Our model makes Alaves clear favourites, giving them a 63% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.58 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (1.98 for Alaves, 0.87 for Malaga), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Alaves sit 11th on 12 points; Malaga are 20th on 5.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.