Over 1.5 goals@1.35
Over 1.5
74%
ESPLa Liga · Matchday 8Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Estadio Mendizorrotza
Alaves
11th · 12 pts1–2FULL TIME
Atletico Madrid
2nd · 28 pts23% Alaves
24% Draw
53% Atletico
OUR PICK
Atletico Madrid to win
Model probability 53% · fair odds
1.88
Expected goals
0.99 – 1.66
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.44X4.0921.88
Goals 2.5Over1.93Under1.98
Both scoreGG1.96NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.98
Under 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.96
GG
51%
Double chance@1.29
X2
77%
Season stats
AlavesAtletico Madrid1.4Goals per game2.0
1.5Conceded per game0.7
1.09Points per game2.55
27%Win rate82%
-2Goal difference14
2Form, last 5 (pts)15
Alaves form
LDLLDA Barcelona6–1
H Malaga1–1
A Celta Vigo2–1
H Atletico Madrid1–2
A Athletic Club0–0
Atletico Madrid form
WWDWWA Levante0–2
H Deportivo La Coruna1–0
A VfB Stuttgart1–1
A Espanyol0–1
H Manchester United2–0
Head to head
0
Alaves
2
Draw
3
Atletico
Oct 2026Alaves – Atletico Madrid1–2
Jan 2026Atletico Madrid – Alaves1–0
Aug 2025Alaves – Atletico Madrid1–1
May 2025Alaves – Atletico Madrid0–0
Nov 2024Atletico Madrid – Alaves2–1
La Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Barcelona11+3430
2Atletico Madrid11+1428
3Real Madrid11+1827
4Real Betis11+323
5Real Sociedad11019
6Sevilla11-217
7Athletic Club10+415
8Deportivo La Coruna11+114
9Villarreal11012
10Celta Vigo11012
Match preview
Our model makes Atletico Madrid slight favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.88 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (0.99 for Alaves, 1.66 for Atletico Madrid), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Alaves sit 11th on 12 points; Atletico Madrid are 2nd on 28.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.