Over 1.5 goals@1.38
Over 1.5
72%
TURSüper Lig · Matchday 7Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Bahcesehir Okullari Stadium
Alanyaspor
12th · 12 pts0–0FULL TIME
Erzurumspor FK
11th · 14 pts42% Alanyaspor
26% Draw
31% Erzurumspor
OUR PICK
Alanyaspor to win
Model probability 42% · fair odds
2.37
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.16
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.37X3.7823.19
Goals 2.5Over2.01Under1.88
Both scoreGG1.94NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.88
Under 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.94
GG
52%
Double chance@1.36
12
74%
Season stats
AlanyasporErzurumspor FK0.9Goals per game0.9
1.6Conceded per game1.5
1.20Points per game1.40
30%Win rate40%
-7Goal difference-6
4Form, last 5 (pts)10
Alanyaspor form
LWLLDA Gençlerbirliği S.K.5–0
H 12 Bingölspor4–1
H Kocaelispor1–2
A Fenerbahçe3–0
H Erzurumspor FK0–0
Erzurumspor FK form
LWWDWH Çorum FK1–3
A Gaziantep FK1–3
H Eyüpspor2–0
A Alanyaspor0–0
H Samsunspor1–0
Head to head
2
Alanyaspor
2
Draw
1
Erzurumspor
Oct 2026Alanyaspor – Erzurumspor FK0–0
May 2021Alanyaspor – Erzurumspor FK2–3
Jan 2021Erzurumspor FK – Alanyaspor1–1
Jan 2021Alanyaspor – Erzurumspor FK4–1
Mar 2019Alanyaspor – Erzurumspor FK2–1
Süper Lig table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Galatasaray10+1125
2Amed10+1423
3Trabzonspor10+1622
4Beşiktaş10+819
5Kasımpaşa10+417
6Fenerbahçe10+1416
7Çorum FK10+516
8Kocaelispor10+216
9Göztepe10+415
10Başakşehir10+114
Match preview
Our model makes Alanyaspor slight favourites, giving them a 42% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.37 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.39 for Alanyaspor, 1.16 for Erzurumspor FK), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Alanyaspor sit 12th on 12 points; Erzurumspor FK are 11th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.