Over 1.5 goals@1.37
Over 1.5
73%
SAUPro League · Matchday 8Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Al-Shabab Club Stadium
Al Shabab
10th · 14 pts3–0FULL TIME
Al Taawon
17th · 5 pts65% Al
22% Draw
13% Al
OUR PICK
Al Shabab to win
Model probability 65% · fair odds
1.54
Expected goals
1.87 – 0.71
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.54X4.6527.41
Goals 2.5Over1.97Under1.91
Both scoreGG2.19NG1.75
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.91
Under 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.75
NG
57%
Double chance@1.16
1X
87%
Season stats
Al ShababAl Taawon1.8Goals per game0.5
1.4Conceded per game1.7
1.27Points per game0.42
27%Win rate0%
5Goal difference-14
11Form, last 5 (pts)2
Al Shabab form
WWDWDH Al-Ahli Jeddah6–1
A Al-Fateh1–3
H Al-Faisaly FC2–2
H Al Taawon3–0
H Al-Fayha0–0
Al Taawon form
DWLLDH Al-Ettifaq1–1
A Al Faisaly0–2
A Al Riyadh2–1
H Al-Qadisiyah FC0–1
A Al Diriyah1–1
Head to head
2
Al
1
Draw
2
Al
Oct 2026Al Shabab – Al Taawon3–0
May 2026Al Shabab – Al Taawon1–5
Jan 2026Al Taawon – Al Shabab2–0
Feb 2025Al Taawon – Al Shabab2–2
Sept 2024Al Shabab – Al Taawon1–0
Pro League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Al-Hilal Saudi FC11+2330
2Al-Qadisiyah FC12+2028
3Al-Nassr11+1728
4Al-Ittihad FC11+1024
5NEOM12+822
6Al-Ahli Jeddah11+921
7Al-Ettifaq12+119
8Al Diriyah12-315
9Al Khaleej Saihat12-515
10Al Shabab11+514
Match preview
Our model makes Al Shabab clear favourites, giving them a 65% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.54 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.87 for Al Shabab, 0.71 for Al Taawon), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Al Shabab sit 10th on 14 points; Al Taawon are 17th on 5.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.