Over 1.5 goals@1.12
Over 1.5
89%
SAUPro League · Matchday 12Thursday, 29 October 2026 · Al-Awwal Park
Al-Nassr
3rd · 28 pts5–3FULL TIME
Al Kholood
11th · 12 pts80% Al-Nassr
13% Draw
8% Al
OUR PICK
Al-Nassr to win
Model probability 80% · fair odds
1.25
Expected goals
2.97 – 0.85
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.25X7.99212.92
Goals 2.5Over1.37Under3.49
Both scoreGG1.84NG2.05
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.37
Over 2.5
73%
Both teams to score@1.84
GG
54%
Double chance@1.08
1X
92%
Season stats
Al-NassrAl Kholood2.5Goals per game1.5
1.0Conceded per game2.4
2.55Points per game1.09
82%Win rate27%
17Goal difference-9
13Form, last 5 (pts)0
Al-Nassr form
WWWWA Pakhtakor2–6
H Al Kholood5–3
A Al-Faisaly FC1–3
H NEOM1–0
Al Kholood form
LLLLLA Al-Nassr5–3
H Al-Ettifaq0–3
A Al-Faisaly FC3–2
H Al-Qadisiyah FC0–5
A Al Riyadh2–0
Head to head
4
Al-Nassr
1
Draw
0
Al
Oct 2026Al-Nassr – Al Kholood5–3
Jan 2026Al Kholood – Al-Nassr0–3
Sept 2025Al-Nassr – Al Kholood2–0
Mar 2025Al-Nassr – Al Kholood3–1
Oct 2024Al Kholood – Al-Nassr3–3
Pro League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Al-Hilal Saudi FC11+2330
2Al-Qadisiyah FC12+2028
3Al-Nassr11+1728
4Al-Ittihad FC11+1024
5NEOM12+822
6Al-Ahli Jeddah11+921
7Al-Ettifaq12+119
8Al Diriyah12-315
9Al Khaleej Saihat12-515
10Al Shabab11+514
Match preview
Our model makes Al-Nassr clear favourites, giving them a 80% chance of winning against 13% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.25 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.8 goals in total (2.97 for Al-Nassr, 0.85 for Al Kholood), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Al-Nassr sit 3rd on 28 points; Al Kholood are 11th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.