Over 1.5 goals@1.24
Over 1.5
81%
BHRPremier League · Matchday 6Thursday, 22 October 2026
Al Najma
8th · 8 pts1–2FULL TIME
A'Ali
9th · 8 pts52% Al
23% Draw
25% A'Ali
OUR PICK
Al Najma to win
Model probability 52% · fair odds
1.92
Expected goals
1.84 – 1.21
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.92X4.3823.99
Goals 2.5Over1.70Under2.30
Both scoreGG1.69NG2.30
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.70
Over 2.5
59%
Both teams to score@1.69
GG
59%
Double chance@1.30
12
77%
Season stats
Al NajmaA'Ali1.7Goals per game0.9
2.3Conceded per game1.3
1.14Points per game1.14
29%Win rate29%
-4Goal difference-3
5Form, last 5 (pts)7
Al Najma form
DLDWLA Al Riffa2–2
H A'Ali1–2
H Al-Hidd2–2
A Sitra0–2
H East Riffa2–3
A'Ali form
DWLLWH Al-Hidd0–0
A Al Najma1–2
H Sitra0–2
A East Riffa2–1
H Malkiya1–0
Head to head
0
Al
0
Draw
5
A'Ali
Oct 2026Al Najma – A'Ali1–2
Feb 2026A'Ali – Al Najma2–0
Jan 2026A'Ali – Al Najma2–0
Sept 2025Al Najma – A'Ali0–3
May 2025Al Najma – A'Ali1–2
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Al Riffa7+1115
2Khalidiya7+1015
3Al Ittifaq Maqaba7+514
4Muharraq7+411
5Al Ahli709
6East Riffa7-58
7Sitra7-28
8Al Najma7-48
9A'Ali7-38
10Al-Hidd707
Match preview
Our model makes Al Najma slight favourites, giving them a 52% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.92 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.84 for Al Najma, 1.21 for A'Ali), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Al Najma sit 8th on 8 points; A'Ali are 9th on 8.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.