Over 1.5 goals@1.66
Over 1.5
60%
EGYPremier League · Matchday 7Monday, 19 October 2026 · Al Masry Club Stadium
AL Masry
12th · 9 pts1–1FULL TIME
Abu Qair Semad
19th · 4 pts58% AL
27% Draw
15% Abu
OUR PICK
AL Masry to win
Model probability 58% · fair odds
1.71
Expected goals
1.45 – 0.58
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.71X3.7426.75
Goals 2.5Over2.86Under1.50
Both scoreGG2.77NG1.51
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.50
Under 2.5
67%
Both teams to score@1.51
NG
66%
Double chance@1.17
1X
85%
Season stats
AL MasryAbu Qair Semad1.0Goals per game0.4
1.3Conceded per game1.5
1.13Points per game0.50
25%Win rate13%
-2Goal difference-9
3Form, last 5 (pts)1
AL Masry form
DDDWLA National Bank of Egypt1–1
H Abu Qair Semad1–1
A Olympic El Qanah1–1
A Ceramica Cleopatra0–1
H Al Ittihad0–2
Abu Qair Semad form
LLDLDH Ceramica Cleopatra0–2
H Ghazl El Mehalla0–1
A AL Masry1–1
H Asyut Petrol1–2
A Ghazl El Mehalla1–1
Head to head
1
AL
2
Draw
0
Abu
Oct 2026AL Masry – Abu Qair Semad1–1
Feb 2022Abu Qair Semad – AL Masry1–1
Oct 2021AL Masry – Abu Qair Semad1–0
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Pyramids FC8+1524
2Al Ahly8+920
3Zamalek SC8+719
4Ceramica Cleopatra8+718
5Al Ittihad8+314
6Future FC8+213
7El Mokawloon8+311
8National Bank of Egypt8011
9Smouha SC8011
10Masr8-111
Match preview
Our model makes AL Masry clear favourites, giving them a 58% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.71 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.0 goals in total (1.45 for AL Masry, 0.58 for Abu Qair Semad), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
AL Masry sit 12th on 9 points; Abu Qair Semad are 19th on 4.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.