Over 1.5 goals@1.51
Over 1.5
66%
SAUPro League · Matchday 11Friday, 23 October 2026 · Alinma Stadium
Al-Ittihad FC
4th · 24 pts2–0FULL TIME
Al Diriyah
8th · 15 pts55% Al-Ittihad
26% Draw
19% Al
OUR PICK
Al-Ittihad FC to win
Model probability 55% · fair odds
1.82
Expected goals
1.51 – 0.77
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.82X3.8425.24
Goals 2.5Over2.36Under1.66
Both scoreGG2.25NG1.72
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.66
Under 2.5
60%
Both teams to score@1.72
NG
58%
Double chance@1.24
1X
81%
Season stats
Al-Ittihad FCAl Diriyah1.9Goals per game0.8
1.0Conceded per game1.1
2.18Points per game1.25
64%Win rate33%
10Goal difference-3
10Form, last 5 (pts)4
Al-Ittihad FC form
DWWWLA Abha1–1
A Neftchi1–2
H Al Diriyah2–0
A Al-Ettifaq1–4
H Shabab Al Ahli Dubai1–2
Al Diriyah form
LLWDLH NEOM1–2
A Al-Ittihad FC2–0
H Al Riyadh1–0
H Al Taawon1–1
A Al-Nassr3–0
Head to head
1
Al-Ittihad
0
Draw
0
Al
Oct 2026Al-Ittihad FC – Al Diriyah2–0
Pro League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Al-Hilal Saudi FC11+2330
2Al-Qadisiyah FC12+2028
3Al-Nassr11+1728
4Al-Ittihad FC11+1024
5NEOM12+822
6Al-Ahli Jeddah11+921
7Al-Ettifaq12+119
8Al Diriyah12-315
9Al Khaleej Saihat12-515
10Al Shabab11+514
Match preview
Our model makes Al-Ittihad FC clear favourites, giving them a 55% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.82 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (1.51 for Al-Ittihad FC, 0.77 for Al Diriyah), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Al-Ittihad FC sit 4th on 24 points; Al Diriyah are 8th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.