Over 1.5 goals@1.86
Over 1.5
54%
EGYPremier League · Matchday 6Tuesday, 13 October 2026 · Alexandria Stadium
Al Ittihad
5th · 14 pts2–1FULL TIME
El Gouna FC
20th · 3 pts55% Al
30% Draw
16% El
OUR PICK
Al Ittihad to win
Model probability 55% · fair odds
1.82
Expected goals
1.27 – 0.53
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.82X3.3726.45
Goals 2.5Over3.49Under1.37
Both scoreGG3.14NG1.42
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.37
Under 2.5
73%
Both teams to score@1.42
NG
70%
Double chance@1.18
1X
84%
Season stats
Al IttihadEl Gouna FC1.1Goals per game0.6
0.8Conceded per game1.4
1.75Points per game0.38
50%Win rate0%
3Goal difference-6
10Form, last 5 (pts)1
Al Ittihad form
DLWLWH El Geish0–0
A Ghazl El Mehalla2–1
H El Gouna FC2–1
H Wadi Degla0–1
A AL Masry0–2
El Gouna FC form
DLLLLA Asyut Petrol1–1
H Smouha SC0–2
A Al Ittihad2–1
A El Mokawloon2–0
H Petrojet1–2
Head to head
2
Al
1
Draw
2
El
Oct 2026Al Ittihad – El Gouna FC2–1
Apr 2026El Gouna FC – Al Ittihad0–0
Nov 2025Al Ittihad – El Gouna FC0–2
Mar 2025El Gouna FC – Al Ittihad2–0
Feb 2025Al Ittihad – El Gouna FC1–0
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Pyramids FC8+1524
2Al Ahly8+920
3Zamalek SC8+719
4Ceramica Cleopatra8+718
5Al Ittihad8+314
6Future FC8+213
7El Mokawloon8+311
8National Bank of Egypt8011
9Smouha SC8011
10Masr8-111
Match preview
Our model makes Al Ittihad clear favourites, giving them a 55% chance of winning against 30% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.82 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.8 goals in total (1.27 for Al Ittihad, 0.53 for El Gouna FC), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Al Ittihad sit 5th on 14 points; El Gouna FC are 20th on 3.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.