Over 1.5 goals@1.39
Over 1.5
72%
EGYPremier League · Matchday 8Friday, 30 October 2026 · Alexandria Stadium
Al Ittihad
5th · 14 pts0–0FULL TIME
El Geish
14th · 8 pts63% Al
22% Draw
14% El
OUR PICK
Al Ittihad to win
Model probability 63% · fair odds
1.58
Expected goals
1.81 – 0.72
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.58X4.4926.98
Goals 2.5Over2.05Under1.86
Both scoreGG2.19NG1.75
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.86
Under 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.75
NG
57%
Double chance@1.17
1X
86%
Season stats
Al IttihadEl Geish1.1Goals per game0.8
0.8Conceded per game1.5
1.75Points per game1.00
50%Win rate25%
3Goal difference-6
10Form, last 5 (pts)2
Al Ittihad form
DLWLWH El Geish0–0
A Ghazl El Mehalla2–1
H El Gouna FC2–1
H Wadi Degla0–1
A AL Masry0–2
El Geish form
DLLLDA Al Ittihad0–0
H Pyramids FC1–4
A National Bank of Egypt3–0
H Smouha SC0–1
A Olympic El Qanah1–1
Head to head
3
Al
1
Draw
1
El
Oct 2026Al Ittihad – El Geish0–0
May 2026Al Ittihad – El Geish1–0
Feb 2026El Geish – Al Ittihad0–1
Apr 2025El Geish – Al Ittihad1–2
Nov 2024Al Ittihad – El Geish0–1
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Pyramids FC8+1524
2Al Ahly8+920
3Zamalek SC8+719
4Ceramica Cleopatra8+718
5Al Ittihad8+314
6Future FC8+213
7El Mokawloon8+311
8National Bank of Egypt8011
9Smouha SC8011
10Masr8-111
Match preview
Our model makes Al Ittihad clear favourites, giving them a 63% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.58 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.81 for Al Ittihad, 0.72 for El Geish), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Al Ittihad sit 5th on 14 points; El Geish are 14th on 8.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.