Over 1.5 goals@1.18
Over 1.5
85%
SAUPro League · Matchday 8Sunday, 11 October 2026 · King Abdullah Sports City Stadium
Al-Fayha
13th · 11 pts1–1FULL TIME
Al Riyadh
12th · 12 pts62% Al-Fayha
20% Draw
18% Al
OUR PICK
Al-Fayha to win
Model probability 62% · fair odds
1.61
Expected goals
2.23 – 1.13
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.61X5.1025.48
Goals 2.5Over1.53Under2.70
Both scoreGG1.66NG2.36
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.53
Over 2.5
65%
Both teams to score@1.66
GG
60%
Double chance@1.22
1X
82%
Season stats
Al-FayhaAl Riyadh1.3Goals per game1.0
1.7Conceded per game2.3
0.92Points per game1.09
17%Win rate27%
-4Goal difference-14
5Form, last 5 (pts)7
Al-Fayha form
WDLLDH Al-Faisaly FC4–1
A Al-Hazm2–2
H Al-Ahli Jeddah2–3
A Al Khaleej Saihat2–0
H Al Riyadh1–1
Al Riyadh form
LWLDWH Al-Qadisiyah FC0–6
H Al Taawon2–1
A Al Diriyah1–0
A Al-Fayha1–1
H Al Kholood2–0
Head to head
0
Al-Fayha
0
Draw
0
Al
These sides haven't met recently.
Pro League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Al-Hilal Saudi FC11+2330
2Al-Qadisiyah FC12+2028
3Al-Nassr11+1728
4Al-Ittihad FC11+1024
5NEOM12+822
6Al-Ahli Jeddah11+921
7Al-Ettifaq12+119
8Al Diriyah12-315
9Al Khaleej Saihat12-515
10Al Shabab11+514
Match preview
Our model makes Al-Fayha clear favourites, giving them a 62% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.61 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.4 goals in total (2.23 for Al-Fayha, 1.13 for Al Riyadh), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Al-Fayha sit 13th on 11 points; Al Riyadh are 12th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.