Over 1.5 goals@1.28
Over 1.5
78%
SAUPro League · Matchday 11Thursday, 22 October 2026 · Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Stadium
Al-Fateh
16th · 6 pts1–3FULL TIME
Al Shabab
10th · 14 pts22% Al-Fateh
23% Draw
55% Al
OUR PICK
Al Shabab to win
Model probability 55% · fair odds
1.81
Expected goals
1.06 – 1.82
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.56X4.3621.81
Goals 2.5Over1.82Under2.10
Both scoreGG1.83NG2.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.82
Over 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.83
GG
55%
Double chance@1.28
X2
78%
Season stats
Al-FatehAl Shabab0.8Goals per game1.8
2.1Conceded per game1.4
0.50Points per game1.27
8%Win rate27%
-15Goal difference5
3Form, last 5 (pts)11
Al-Fateh form
LLLWLA Al-Hilal Saudi FC2–0
H Al Shabab1–3
H Al Khaleej Saihat2–3
A Al-Hazm2–3
H Al-Ahli Jeddah0–4
Al Shabab form
WWDWDH Al-Ahli Jeddah6–1
A Al-Fateh1–3
H Al-Faisaly FC2–2
H Al Taawon3–0
H Al-Fayha0–0
Head to head
2
Al-Fateh
2
Draw
1
Al
Oct 2026Al-Fateh – Al Shabab1–3
Apr 2026Al Shabab – Al-Fateh1–1
Jan 2026Al-Fateh – Al Shabab2–0
May 2025Al-Fateh – Al Shabab3–1
Dec 2024Al Shabab – Al-Fateh2–2
Pro League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Al-Hilal Saudi FC11+2330
2Al-Qadisiyah FC12+2028
3Al-Nassr11+1728
4Al-Ittihad FC11+1024
5NEOM12+822
6Al-Ahli Jeddah11+921
7Al-Ettifaq12+119
8Al Diriyah12-315
9Al Khaleej Saihat12-515
10Al Shabab11+514
Match preview
Our model makes Al Shabab clear favourites, giving them a 55% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.81 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (1.06 for Al-Fateh, 1.82 for Al Shabab), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Al-Fateh sit 16th on 6 points; Al Shabab are 10th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.