Over 1.5 goals@1.18
Over 1.5
85%
SAUPro League · Matchday 11Friday, 23 October 2026 · Al Majma'ah Sport City
Al-Faisaly FC
15th · 10 pts1–3FULL TIME
Al-Nassr
3rd · 28 pts15% Al-Faisaly
18% Draw
67% Al-Nassr
OUR PICK
Al-Nassr to win
Model probability 67% · fair odds
1.49
Expected goals
1.02 – 2.36
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X216.75X5.5221.49
Goals 2.5Over1.53Under2.77
Both scoreGG1.73NG2.25
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.53
Over 2.5
66%
Both teams to score@1.73
GG
58%
Double chance@1.17
X2
85%
Season stats
Al-Faisaly FCAl-Nassr1.1Goals per game2.5
2.0Conceded per game1.0
0.83Points per game2.55
17%Win rate82%
-11Goal difference17
7Form, last 5 (pts)13
Al-Faisaly FC form
LWLDWA Al-Fayha4–1
A Abha0–1
H Al-Nassr1–3
A Al Shabab2–2
H Al Kholood3–2
Al-Nassr form
WWWWA Pakhtakor2–6
H Al Kholood5–3
A Al-Faisaly FC1–3
H NEOM1–0
Head to head
2
Al-Faisaly
0
Draw
3
Al-Nassr
Oct 2026Al-Faisaly FC – Al-Nassr1–3
Jan 2022Al-Nassr – Al-Faisaly FC4–0
Aug 2021Al-Faisaly FC – Al-Nassr2–1
May 2021Al-Nassr – Al-Faisaly FC4–3
Apr 2021Al-Nassr – Al-Faisaly FC0–1
Pro League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Al-Hilal Saudi FC11+2330
2Al-Qadisiyah FC12+2028
3Al-Nassr11+1728
4Al-Ittihad FC11+1024
5NEOM12+822
6Al-Ahli Jeddah11+921
7Al-Ettifaq12+119
8Al Diriyah12-315
9Al Khaleej Saihat12-515
10Al Shabab11+514
Match preview
Our model makes Al-Nassr clear favourites, giving them a 67% chance of winning against 18% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.49 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.4 goals in total (1.02 for Al-Faisaly FC, 2.36 for Al-Nassr), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Al-Faisaly FC sit 15th on 10 points; Al-Nassr are 3rd on 28.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.