Over 1.5 goals@1.93
Over 1.5
52%
SAUPro League · Matchday 12Friday, 30 October 2026 · Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium
Al Diriyah
8th · 15 pts1–2FULL TIME
NEOM
5th · 22 pts27% Al
33% Draw
40% NEOM
OUR PICK
NEOM to win
Model probability 40% · fair odds
2.50
Expected goals
0.75 – 0.99
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.74X3.0122.50
Goals 2.5Over3.77Under1.34
Both scoreGG2.86NG1.50
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.34
Under 2.5
75%
Both teams to score@1.50
NG
67%
Double chance@1.37
X2
73%
Season stats
Al DiriyahNEOM0.8Goals per game1.5
1.1Conceded per game0.8
1.25Points per game1.83
33%Win rate58%
-3Goal difference8
4Form, last 5 (pts)7
Al Diriyah form
LLWDLH NEOM1–2
A Al-Ittihad FC2–0
H Al Riyadh1–0
H Al Taawon1–1
A Al-Nassr3–0
NEOM form
WLWLLA Al Diriyah1–2
A Al-Shabab3–1
H Abha2–0
A Al-Nassr1–0
H Al-Ettifaq0–1
Head to head
0
Al
0
Draw
1
NEOM
Oct 2026Al Diriyah – NEOM1–2
Pro League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Al-Hilal Saudi FC11+2330
2Al-Qadisiyah FC12+2028
3Al-Nassr11+1728
4Al-Ittihad FC11+1024
5NEOM12+822
6Al-Ahli Jeddah11+921
7Al-Ettifaq12+119
8Al Diriyah12-315
9Al Khaleej Saihat12-515
10Al Shabab11+514
Match preview
Our model makes NEOM slight favourites, giving them a 40% chance of winning against 33% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.50 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.7 goals in total (0.75 for Al Diriyah, 0.99 for NEOM), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Al Diriyah sit 8th on 15 points; NEOM are 5th on 22.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.