Over 1.5 goals@1.90
Over 1.5
53%
SAUPro League · Matchday 9Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium
Al Diriyah
8th · 15 pts1–1FULL TIME
Al Taawon
17th · 5 pts54% Al
30% Draw
16% Al
OUR PICK
Al Diriyah to win
Model probability 54% · fair odds
1.84
Expected goals
1.24 – 0.52
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.84X3.3126.42
Goals 2.5Over3.63Under1.35
Both scoreGG3.25NG1.40
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.35
Under 2.5
74%
Both teams to score@1.40
NG
71%
Double chance@1.18
1X
84%
Season stats
Al DiriyahAl Taawon0.8Goals per game0.5
1.1Conceded per game1.7
1.25Points per game0.42
33%Win rate0%
-3Goal difference-14
4Form, last 5 (pts)2
Al Diriyah form
LLWDLH NEOM1–2
A Al-Ittihad FC2–0
H Al Riyadh1–0
H Al Taawon1–1
A Al-Nassr3–0
Al Taawon form
DWLLDH Al-Ettifaq1–1
A Al Faisaly0–2
A Al Riyadh2–1
H Al-Qadisiyah FC0–1
A Al Diriyah1–1
Head to head
0
Al
1
Draw
0
Al
Oct 2026Al Diriyah – Al Taawon1–1
Pro League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Al-Hilal Saudi FC11+2330
2Al-Qadisiyah FC12+2028
3Al-Nassr11+1728
4Al-Ittihad FC11+1024
5NEOM12+822
6Al-Ahli Jeddah11+921
7Al-Ettifaq12+119
8Al Diriyah12-315
9Al Khaleej Saihat12-515
10Al Shabab11+514
Match preview
Our model makes Al Diriyah clear favourites, giving them a 54% chance of winning against 30% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.84 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.8 goals in total (1.24 for Al Diriyah, 0.52 for Al Taawon), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Al Diriyah sit 8th on 15 points; Al Taawon are 17th on 5.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.