Over 1.5 goals@1.40
Over 1.5
71%
SAUPro League · Matchday 10Tuesday, 20 October 2026 · Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium
Al Diriyah
8th · 15 pts1–0FULL TIME
Al Riyadh
12th · 12 pts53% Al
25% Draw
22% Al
OUR PICK
Al Diriyah to win
Model probability 53% · fair odds
1.88
Expected goals
1.59 – 0.91
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.88X3.9824.64
Goals 2.5Over2.05Under1.84
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.91
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.84
Under 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.91
NG
52%
Double chance@1.27
1X
78%
Season stats
Al DiriyahAl Riyadh0.8Goals per game1.0
1.1Conceded per game2.3
1.25Points per game1.09
33%Win rate27%
-3Goal difference-14
4Form, last 5 (pts)7
Al Diriyah form
LLWDLH NEOM1–2
A Al-Ittihad FC2–0
H Al Riyadh1–0
H Al Taawon1–1
A Al-Nassr3–0
Al Riyadh form
LWLDWH Al-Qadisiyah FC0–6
H Al Taawon2–1
A Al Diriyah1–0
A Al-Fayha1–1
H Al Kholood2–0
Head to head
1
Al
0
Draw
0
Al
Oct 2026Al Diriyah – Al Riyadh1–0
Pro League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Al-Hilal Saudi FC11+2330
2Al-Qadisiyah FC12+2028
3Al-Nassr11+1728
4Al-Ittihad FC11+1024
5NEOM12+822
6Al-Ahli Jeddah11+921
7Al-Ettifaq12+119
8Al Diriyah12-315
9Al Khaleej Saihat12-515
10Al Shabab11+514
Match preview
Our model makes Al Diriyah clear favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.88 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.59 for Al Diriyah, 0.91 for Al Riyadh), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Al Diriyah sit 8th on 15 points; Al Riyadh are 12th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.