Over 1.5 goals@1.34
Over 1.5
74%
BHRPremier League · Matchday 5Sunday, 18 October 2026
Al Ahli
5th · 9 pts1–2FULL TIME
Khalidiya
2nd · 15 pts30% Al
26% Draw
44% Khalidiya
OUR PICK
Khalidiya to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.27
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.48
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.31X3.8922.27
Goals 2.5Over1.89Under1.99
Both scoreGG1.87NG2.05
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.99
Under 2.5
50%
Both teams to score@1.87
GG
54%
Double chance@1.35
12
74%
Season stats
Al AhliKhalidiya1.0Goals per game2.6
1.0Conceded per game1.1
1.29Points per game2.14
29%Win rate57%
0Goal difference10
5Form, last 5 (pts)9
Al Ahli form
DDLWLH East Riffa0–0
A Malkiya1–1
H Khalidiya1–2
A Manama1–3
H Al Ittifaq Maqaba0–2
Khalidiya form
WLDWLA Manama0–2
H Al Wahda FC1–2
H Al Ittifaq Maqaba2–2
A Al Ahli1–2
A Al Kuwait3–1
Head to head
1
Al
0
Draw
4
Khalidiya
Oct 2026Al Ahli – Khalidiya1–2
Jan 2026Khalidiya – Al Ahli0–1
Sept 2025Al Ahli – Khalidiya0–1
Aug 2025Khalidiya – Al Ahli5–2
Apr 2025Khalidiya – Al Ahli2–1
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Al Riffa7+1115
2Khalidiya7+1015
3Al Ittifaq Maqaba7+514
4Muharraq7+411
5Al Ahli709
6East Riffa7-58
7Sitra7-28
8Al Najma7-48
9A'Ali7-38
10Al-Hidd707
Match preview
Our model makes Khalidiya slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.27 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.18 for Al Ahli, 1.48 for Khalidiya), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Al Ahli sit 5th on 9 points; Khalidiya are 2nd on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.