Over 1.5 goals@1.11
Over 1.5
90%
NEDEredivisie · Matchday 8Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Johan Cruijff Arena
Ajax
2nd · 24 pts1–1FULL TIME
NEC Nijmegen
13th · 11 pts72% Ajax
15% Draw
12% NEC
OUR PICK
Ajax to win
Model probability 72% · fair odds
1.38
Expected goals
2.81 – 1.11
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.38X6.5928.07
Goals 2.5Over1.34Under3.77
Both scoreGG1.59NG2.55
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.34
Over 2.5
75%
Both teams to score@1.59
GG
63%
Double chance@1.14
1X
88%
Season stats
AjaxNEC Nijmegen2.7Goals per game1.5
1.2Conceded per game1.7
2.18Points per game1.00
64%Win rate18%
17Goal difference-2
11Form, last 5 (pts)4
Ajax form
WWWWLH AZ Alkmaar1–0
A Sparta Rotterdam1–2
H Atalanta2–0
A Groningen2–5
A HNK Hajduk Split2–1
NEC Nijmegen form
LDWDDA Heerenveen1–0
H Groningen2–2
A Dinamo Zagreb2–4
H Fortuna Sittard2–2
H Levski Sofia1–1
Head to head
1
Ajax
3
Draw
1
NEC
Oct 2026Ajax – NEC Nijmegen1–1
Feb 2026Ajax – NEC Nijmegen1–1
Dec 2025NEC Nijmegen – Ajax2–2
May 2025Ajax – NEC Nijmegen0–3
Dec 2024NEC Nijmegen – Ajax1–2
Eredivisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Feyenoord11+2125
2Ajax11+1724
3PSV Eindhoven11+2223
4Twente11+1823
5AZ Alkmaar11+720
6Fortuna Sittard11019
7Heerenveen11+618
8Groningen11+215
9Cambuur11+115
10GO Ahead Eagles11-414
Match preview
Our model makes Ajax clear favourites, giving them a 72% chance of winning against 15% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.38 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.9 goals in total (2.81 for Ajax, 1.11 for NEC Nijmegen), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Ajax sit 2nd on 24 points; NEC Nijmegen are 13th on 11.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.