Over 1.5 goals@1.20
Over 1.5
83%
NEDEredivisie · Matchday 11Saturday, 31 October 2026 · Johan Cruijff Arena
Ajax
2nd · 24 pts1–0FULL TIME
AZ Alkmaar
5th · 20 pts57% Ajax
21% Draw
22% AZ
OUR PICK
Ajax to win
Model probability 57% · fair odds
1.76
Expected goals
2.04 – 1.19
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.76X4.7124.59
Goals 2.5Over1.60Under2.55
Both scoreGG1.65NG2.42
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.60
Over 2.5
63%
Both teams to score@1.65
GG
61%
Double chance@1.27
12
79%
Season stats
AjaxAZ Alkmaar2.7Goals per game1.8
1.2Conceded per game1.2
2.18Points per game1.82
64%Win rate55%
17Goal difference7
11Form, last 5 (pts)4
Ajax form
No recent matches.
AZ Alkmaar form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Ajax
0
Draw
0
AZ
These sides haven't met recently.
Eredivisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Feyenoord11+2125
2Ajax11+1724
3PSV Eindhoven11+2223
4Twente10+920
5AZ Alkmaar11+720
6Fortuna Sittard11019
7Heerenveen11+618
8Groningen10+315
9GO Ahead Eagles10014
10Cambuur10-312
Match preview
Our model makes Ajax clear favourites, giving them a 57% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.76 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (2.04 for Ajax, 1.19 for AZ Alkmaar), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Ajax sit 2nd on 24 points; AZ Alkmaar are 5th on 20.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.