Over 1.5 goals@1.21
Over 1.5
82%
WORUEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 2Thursday, 22 October 2026 · Johan Cruijff Arena
Ajax
13th · 3 pts2–0FULL TIME
Atalanta
15th · 3 pts33% Ajax
23% Draw
44% Atalanta
OUR PICKSolo pick of the day
Both teams to score
Model probability 63% · fair odds
1.59
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.71
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.05X4.2722.28
Goals 2.5Over1.64Under2.42
Both scoreGG1.59NG2.55
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.64
Over 2.5
61%
Both teams to score@1.59
GG
63%
Double chance@1.31
12
77%
Season stats
AjaxAtalanta1.5Goals per game1.5
1.0Conceded per game1.5
1.50Points per game1.50
50%Win rate50%
1Goal difference0
3Form, last 5 (pts)3
Ajax form
WWWWLH AZ Alkmaar1–0
A Sparta Rotterdam1–2
H Atalanta2–0
A Groningen2–5
A HNK Hajduk Split2–1
Atalanta form
LDDLLH Parma0–3
A Fiorentina2–2
H Frosinone4–4
A Ajax2–0
A AC Milan3–2
Head to head
1
Ajax
1
Draw
1
Atalanta
Oct 2026Ajax – Atalanta2–0
Dec 2020Ajax – Atalanta0–1
Oct 2020Atalanta – Ajax2–2
UEFA Europa Conference League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Panathinaikos2+56
2FC Lugano2+46
3Brann2+46
4Trabzonspor2+46
5Twente2+46
6Monaco2+46
7St. Truiden2+36
8HNK Hajduk Split2+26
9Brighton2+44
10FC Copenhagen2+34
Match preview
Our model makes Atalanta slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.28 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (1.45 for Ajax, 1.71 for Atalanta), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Ajax sit 13th on 3 points; Atalanta are 15th on 3.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.