Over 1.5 goals@1.15
Over 1.5
87%
WALPremier League · Matchday 12Saturday, 3 October 2026 · The Airfield
Airbus UK
7th · 27 pts3–0FULL TIME
Trefelin
15th · 6 pts81% Airbus
12% Draw
6% Trefelin
OUR PICK
Airbus UK to win
Model probability 81% · fair odds
1.23
Expected goals
2.86 – 0.70
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.23X8.18215.54
Goals 2.5Over1.46Under3.04
Both scoreGG2.01NG1.90
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.46
Over 2.5
69%
Both teams to score@1.90
NG
53%
Double chance@1.07
1X
94%
Season stats
Airbus UKTrefelin2.1Goals per game0.5
1.5Conceded per game2.4
1.80Points per game0.40
60%Win rate7%
9Goal difference-28
12Form, last 5 (pts)3
Airbus UK form
WWLWWH Caernarfon Town3–2
A Cambrian & Clydach2–3
H The New Saints1–2
A Llandudno1–4
H Trefelin3–0
Trefelin form
LLWWLA Barry Town3–0
H Flint Town United0–2
H Llantwit Major4–1
A Cardiff MET1–3
A Airbus UK3–0
Head to head
2
Airbus
0
Draw
0
Trefelin
Oct 2026Airbus UK – Trefelin3–0
Nov 2022Airbus UK – Trefelin2–1
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1The New Saints15+4741
2GAP Connah S Quay FC15+2335
3Penybont14+1933
4Caernarfon Town15+2329
5Colwyn Bay15+929
6Barry Town15+628
7Airbus UK15+927
8Cardiff MET15+322
9Cambrian & Clydach15-1518
10Llandudno15-616
Match preview
Our model makes Airbus UK clear favourites, giving them a 81% chance of winning against 12% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.23 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.6 goals in total (2.86 for Airbus UK, 0.70 for Trefelin), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Airbus UK sit 7th on 27 points; Trefelin are 15th on 6.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.