Over 1.5 goals@1.13
Over 1.5
88%
WALPremier League · Matchday 15Friday, 30 October 2026 · The Airfield
Airbus UK
7th · 27 pts3–2FULL TIME
Caernarfon Town
4th · 29 pts31% Airbus
21% Draw
48% Caernarfon
OUR PICK
Caernarfon Town to win
Model probability 48% · fair odds
2.09
Expected goals
1.63 – 2.06
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.24X4.7122.09
Goals 2.5Over1.40Under3.25
Both scoreGG1.43NG3.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.40
Over 2.5
71%
Both teams to score@1.43
GG
70%
Double chance@1.27
12
79%
Season stats
Airbus UKCaernarfon Town2.1Goals per game2.8
1.5Conceded per game1.3
1.80Points per game1.93
60%Win rate60%
9Goal difference23
12Form, last 5 (pts)7
Airbus UK form
WWLWWH Caernarfon Town3–2
A Cambrian & Clydach2–3
H The New Saints1–2
A Llandudno1–4
H Trefelin3–0
Caernarfon Town form
LWWWLA Airbus UK3–2
H Briton Ferry3–1
A Flint Town United1–3
A Haverfordwest County AFC1–2
H Barry Town0–1
Head to head
1
Airbus
0
Draw
4
Caernarfon
Oct 2026Airbus UK – Caernarfon Town3–2
Mar 2023Caernarfon Town – Airbus UK4–0
Feb 2023Airbus UK – Caernarfon Town0–2
Jan 2023Airbus UK – Caernarfon Town0–3
Sept 2022Caernarfon Town – Airbus UK3–1
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1The New Saints15+4741
2GAP Connah S Quay FC15+2335
3Penybont14+1933
4Caernarfon Town15+2329
5Colwyn Bay15+929
6Barry Town15+628
7Airbus UK15+927
8Cardiff MET15+322
9Cambrian & Clydach15-1518
10Llandudno15-616
Match preview
Our model makes Caernarfon Town slight favourites, giving them a 48% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.09 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.7 goals in total (1.63 for Airbus UK, 2.06 for Caernarfon Town), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Airbus UK sit 7th on 27 points; Caernarfon Town are 4th on 29.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.