Over 1.5 goals@1.17
Over 1.5
86%
SWEAllsvenskan · Matchday 24Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Strawberry Arena
AIK Stockholm
8th · 38 pts2–2FULL TIME
IFK Goteborg
9th · 38 pts52% AIK
22% Draw
27% IFK
OUR PICK
AIK Stockholm to win
Model probability 52% · fair odds
1.93
Expected goals
2.02 – 1.40
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.93X4.6423.76
Goals 2.5Over1.51Under2.77
Both scoreGG1.53NG2.70
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.51
Over 2.5
66%
Both teams to score@1.53
GG
65%
Double chance@1.27
12
78%
Season stats
AIK StockholmIFK Goteborg1.6Goals per game1.3
1.7Conceded per game1.7
1.41Points per game1.41
37%Win rate37%
-4Goal difference-10
5Form, last 5 (pts)6
AIK Stockholm form
LDWDLA Gais2–1
H IF Elfsborg2–2
A Sirius1–2
H IFK Goteborg2–2
H IF Brommapojkarna5–6
IFK Goteborg form
LDDDWA BK Hacken1–0
H Djurgardens IF1–1
A Gais1–1
A AIK Stockholm2–2
H Vasteras SK FK1–0
Head to head
3
AIK
1
Draw
1
IFK
Oct 2026AIK Stockholm – IFK Goteborg2–2
Jul 2026IFK Goteborg – AIK Stockholm1–2
Aug 2025IFK Goteborg – AIK Stockholm2–1
Jun 2025AIK Stockholm – IFK Goteborg3–0
Oct 2024IFK Goteborg – AIK Stockholm1–2
Allsvenskan table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Hammarby FF27+3455
2Sirius26+2255
3Djurgardens IF27+3052
4BK Hacken27+1849
5IF Elfsborg27+1446
6Vasteras SK FK27+244
7Malmo FF27+640
8AIK Stockholm27-438
9IFK Goteborg27-1038
10Gais27+737
Match preview
Our model makes AIK Stockholm slight favourites, giving them a 52% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.93 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.4 goals in total (2.02 for AIK Stockholm, 1.40 for IFK Goteborg), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
AIK Stockholm sit 8th on 38 points; IFK Goteborg are 9th on 38.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.