Over 1.5 goals@1.29
Over 1.5
77%
SWEAllsvenskan · Matchday 26Tuesday, 27 October 2026 · Strawberry Arena
AIK Stockholm
8th · 38 pts2–2FULL TIME
IF Elfsborg
5th · 46 pts31% AIK
25% Draw
44% IF
OUR PICK
IF Elfsborg to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.26
Expected goals
1.26 – 1.56
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.24X4.0222.26
Goals 2.5Over1.87Under2.05
Both scoreGG1.77NG2.19
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.87
Over 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.77
GG
57%
Double chance@1.33
12
75%
Season stats
AIK StockholmIF Elfsborg1.6Goals per game1.5
1.7Conceded per game1.0
1.46Points per game1.70
38%Win rate44%
-3Goal difference14
5Form, last 5 (pts)9
AIK Stockholm form
DWDLLH IF Elfsborg2–2
A Sirius1–2
H IFK Goteborg2–2
H IF Brommapojkarna5–6
A Halmstad2–1
IF Elfsborg form
WDDDWH Orgryte IS2–1
A AIK Stockholm2–2
H Malmo FF0–0
A Sirius2–2
H Halmstad4–0
Head to head
2
AIK
2
Draw
1
IF
Oct 2026AIK Stockholm – IF Elfsborg2–2
May 2026IF Elfsborg – AIK Stockholm1–1
Mar 2026IF Elfsborg – AIK Stockholm3–2
Nov 2025IF Elfsborg – AIK Stockholm0–3
Apr 2025AIK Stockholm – IF Elfsborg2–0
Allsvenskan table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Hammarby FF27+3455
2Sirius26+2255
3Djurgardens IF27+3052
4BK Hacken27+1849
5IF Elfsborg27+1446
6Vasteras SK FK27+244
7Malmo FF27+640
8AIK Stockholm26-338
9IFK Goteborg27-1038
10Gais26+634
Match preview
Our model makes IF Elfsborg slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.26 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.26 for AIK Stockholm, 1.56 for IF Elfsborg), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
AIK Stockholm sit 8th on 38 points; IF Elfsborg are 5th on 46.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.