Over 1.5 goals@1.30
Over 1.5
77%
ENGLeague One · Matchday 13Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Plough Lane
AFC Wimbledon
18th · 13 pts1–1FULL TIME
Wycombe
13th · 18 pts27% AFC
25% Draw
48% Wycombe
OUR PICK
Wycombe to win
Model probability 48% · fair odds
2.08
Expected goals
1.17 – 1.63
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.65X4.0822.08
Goals 2.5Over1.89Under2.01
Both scoreGG1.80NG2.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.89
Over 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.80
GG
55%
Double chance@1.33
12
75%
Season stats
AFC WimbledonWycombe0.7Goals per game1.6
1.6Conceded per game1.8
1.00Points per game1.38
23%Win rate31%
-12Goal difference-2
1Form, last 5 (pts)8
AFC Wimbledon form
LLDLLA Stockport County2–1
H Arsenal U211–2
H Wycombe1–1
H Mansfield Town0–3
A Sheffield Wednesday5–0
Wycombe form
WDDWLH Burton Albion2–0
A AFC Wimbledon1–1
A Cambridge United2–2
H Notts County2–0
H Luton1–4
Head to head
2
AFC
1
Draw
2
Wycombe
Oct 2026AFC Wimbledon – Wycombe1–1
Jan 2026Wycombe – AFC Wimbledon2–0
Sept 2025AFC Wimbledon – Wycombe2–1
Aug 2024AFC Wimbledon – Wycombe1–0
Nov 2023Wycombe – AFC Wimbledon1–0
League One table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Huddersfield13+1628
2Stockport County14+1226
3Oxford United12+923
4Luton13+623
5Plymouth14+223
6Reading13+1222
7Bradford13+222
8Cambridge United14021
9Sheffield Wednesday13+820
10Leicester13+319
Match preview
Our model makes Wycombe slight favourites, giving them a 48% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.08 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.17 for AFC Wimbledon, 1.63 for Wycombe), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
AFC Wimbledon sit 18th on 13 points; Wycombe are 13th on 18.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.