Over 1.5 goals@1.55
Over 1.5
65%
ENGLeague One · Matchday 9Saturday, 3 October 2026 · Plough Lane
AFC Wimbledon
18th · 13 pts15:00KICK-OFF WAT
Stevenage
16th · 16 pts21% AFC
27% Draw
51% Stevenage
OUR PICK
Stevenage to win
Model probability 51% · fair odds
1.96
Expected goals
0.80 – 1.40
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.66X3.6521.96
Goals 2.5Over2.48Under1.61
Both scoreGG2.30NG1.71
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.61
Under 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.71
NG
59%
Double chance@1.27
X2
79%
Season stats
AFC WimbledonStevenage0.7Goals per game1.4
1.6Conceded per game1.1
1.00Points per game1.33
23%Win rate33%
-12Goal difference4
1Form, last 5 (pts)7
AFC Wimbledon form
LLDLLA Stockport County2–1
H Arsenal U211–2
H Wycombe1–1
H Mansfield Town0–3
A Sheffield Wednesday5–0
Stevenage form
DLWLWA Leicester2–2
H Milton Keynes Dons0–1
H Plymouth3–0
A Bradford2–0
H Wigan1–0
Head to head
0
AFC
2
Draw
3
Stevenage
Mar 2026Stevenage – AFC Wimbledon1–0
Dec 2025AFC Wimbledon – Stevenage0–0
Sept 2025AFC Wimbledon – Stevenage1–5
Sept 2023AFC Wimbledon – Stevenage1–1
Apr 2023Stevenage – AFC Wimbledon2–1
League One table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Huddersfield13+1628
2Stockport County14+1226
3Oxford United12+923
4Luton13+623
5Plymouth14+223
6Reading13+1222
7Bradford13+222
8Cambridge United14021
9Sheffield Wednesday13+820
10Leicester13+319
Match preview
Our model makes Stevenage slight favourites, giving them a 51% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.96 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.2 goals in total (0.80 for AFC Wimbledon, 1.40 for Stevenage), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
AFC Wimbledon sit 18th on 13 points; Stevenage are 16th on 16.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.