Over 1.5 goals@1.38
Over 1.5
72%
ENGLeague One · Matchday 12Tuesday, 20 October 2026 · Plough Lane
AFC Wimbledon
18th · 13 pts0–3FULL TIME
Mansfield Town
12th · 18 pts31% AFC
26% Draw
43% Mansfield
OUR PICK
Mansfield Town to win
Model probability 43% · fair odds
2.33
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.41
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.26X3.7922.33
Goals 2.5Over2.01Under1.89
Both scoreGG1.94NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.89
Under 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.94
GG
52%
Double chance@1.36
12
74%
Season stats
AFC WimbledonMansfield Town0.7Goals per game1.7
1.6Conceded per game1.5
1.00Points per game1.50
23%Win rate42%
-12Goal difference2
1Form, last 5 (pts)10
AFC Wimbledon form
LLDLLA Stockport County2–1
H Arsenal U211–2
H Wycombe1–1
H Mansfield Town0–3
A Sheffield Wednesday5–0
Mansfield Town form
LWWDWH Notts County0–2
A Blackpool1–4
A AFC Wimbledon0–3
H Oxford United1–1
H Bromley2–1
Head to head
1
AFC
3
Draw
1
Mansfield
Oct 2026AFC Wimbledon – Mansfield Town0–3
Feb 2026Mansfield Town – AFC Wimbledon2–2
Dec 2025AFC Wimbledon – Mansfield Town0–0
Jan 2024AFC Wimbledon – Mansfield Town2–1
Oct 2023Mansfield Town – AFC Wimbledon0–0
League One table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Huddersfield13+1628
2Stockport County14+1226
3Oxford United12+923
4Luton13+623
5Plymouth14+223
6Reading13+1222
7Bradford13+222
8Cambridge United14021
9Sheffield Wednesday13+820
10Leicester13+319
Match preview
Our model makes Mansfield Town slight favourites, giving them a 43% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.33 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.15 for AFC Wimbledon, 1.41 for Mansfield Town), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
AFC Wimbledon sit 18th on 13 points; Mansfield Town are 12th on 18.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.