KENFKF Premier League · Matchday 3Sunday, 25 October 2026

AFC Leopards

5th · 6 pts

0–0FULL TIME

Shabana

6th · 6 pts

34% AFC

42% Draw

25% Shabana

OUR PICK

Draw

Model probability 42% · fair odds

2.39

Expected goals

0.67 – 0.53

Confidence

Low

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X212.98X2.3924.06

Goals 2.5Over7.86Under1.14

Both scoreGG4.72NG1.25

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@2.96

Over 1.5

34%

Over/Under 2.5@1.14

Under 2.5

88%

Both teams to score@1.25

80%

Double chance@1.33

75%

Season stats

AFC LeopardsShabana

0.5Goals per game0.5

0.3Conceded per game0.3

1.50Points per game1.50

25%Win rate25%

1Goal difference1

6Form, last 5 (pts)6

AFC Leopards form

WDDWD

H Homeboyz2–0

A Mara Sugar0–0

H Shabana0–0

A Kenya Police1–2

H Bandari0–0

Shabana form

DDDWL

H Migori Youth1–1

A AFC Leopards0–0

H Nairobi United0–0

A Posta Rangers FC0–1

H KCB1–2

Head to head

AFC

Draw

Shabana

Oct 2026AFC Leopards – Shabana0–0

Mar 2026AFC Leopards – Shabana5–1

Oct 2025Shabana – AFC Leopards1–2

Mar 2025AFC Leopards – Shabana1–1

Nov 2024Shabana – AFC Leopards2–1

FKF Premier League table

#TeamGPGDPts

1GOR Mahia4+512

2KCB4+27

3Murang'a SEAL4+26

4Mara Sugar4+16

5AFC Leopards4+16

6Shabana4+16

7APS Bomet4+25

8Kenya Police405

9Mathare United405

103K4-25

Match preview

Our model sees little between the sides: AFC Leopards 34%, the draw 42%, Shabana 25%.

Our fair price for "Draw" is 2.39 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 1.2 goals in total (0.67 for AFC Leopards, 0.53 for Shabana), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.

AFC Leopards sit 5th on 6 points; Shabana are 6th on 6.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

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