Over 1.5 goals@3.03
Over 1.5
33%
KENFKF Premier League · Matchday 5Sunday, 1 November 2026
AFC Leopards
5th · 6 pts2–0LIVE 90'
Homeboyz
11th · 4 pts37% AFC
42% Draw
21% Homeboyz
OUR PICK
Draw
Model probability 42% · fair odds
2.39
Expected goals
0.71 – 0.47
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.72X2.3924.67
Goals 2.5Over7.86Under1.13
Both scoreGG4.97NG1.24
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.13
Under 2.5
88%
Both teams to score@1.24
NG
81%
Double chance@1.27
1X
79%
Season stats
AFC LeopardsHomeboyz0.5Goals per game0.7
0.3Conceded per game0.7
1.50Points per game1.33
25%Win rate33%
1Goal difference0
6Form, last 5 (pts)4
AFC Leopards form
No recent matches.
Homeboyz form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
AFC
0
Draw
0
Homeboyz
These sides haven't met recently.
FKF Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1GOR Mahia4+512
2KCB4+27
3Murang'a SEAL4+26
4Mara Sugar4+16
5AFC Leopards4+16
6Shabana4+16
7APS Bomet4+25
8Kenya Police405
9Mathare United405
103K4-25
Match preview
Our model makes AFC Leopards slight favourites, giving them a 37% chance of winning against 42% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Draw" is 2.39 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.2 goals in total (0.71 for AFC Leopards, 0.47 for Homeboyz), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
AFC Leopards sit 5th on 6 points; Homeboyz are 11th on 4.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.