Over 1.5 goals@1.21
Over 1.5
82%
ALBSuperliga · Matchday 9Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · Elbasan Arena
AF Elbasani
4th · 14 pts2–1FULL TIME
Partizani
10th · 4 pts64% AF
20% Draw
17% Partizani
OUR PICK
AF Elbasani to win
Model probability 64% · fair odds
1.57
Expected goals
2.16 – 1.01
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.57X5.0526.00
Goals 2.5Over1.63Under2.42
Both scoreGG1.78NG2.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.63
Over 2.5
61%
Both teams to score@1.78
GG
56%
Double chance@1.20
1X
83%
Season stats
AF ElbasaniPartizani1.3Goals per game1.1
1.2Conceded per game2.3
1.40Points per game0.44
30%Win rate11%
1Goal difference-11
8Form, last 5 (pts)0
AF Elbasani form
WWDLDH Laci2–1
H Partizani2–1
A Teuta Durrës0–0
A Skenderbeu Korce2–1
H Vora1–1
Partizani form
LLLLWA AF Elbasani2–1
H Skenderbeu Korce0–2
A Vora4–1
H Tirana1–3
H Drenica Skënderaj2–1
Head to head
3
AF
1
Draw
1
Partizani
Oct 2026AF Elbasani – Partizani2–1
Apr 2026AF Elbasani – Partizani3–0
Mar 2026Partizani – AF Elbasani1–3
Feb 2026AF Elbasani – Partizani0–1
Jan 2026Partizani – AF Elbasani2–2
Superliga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Egnatia Rrogozhinë10+1124
2Teuta Durrës9+1120
3Dinamo Tirana9+316
4AF Elbasani10+114
5Tirana10-112
6Laci10-411
7Skenderbeu Korce10-111
8Vora9-411
9Vllaznia Shkodër10-59
10Partizani9-114
Match preview
Our model makes AF Elbasani clear favourites, giving them a 64% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.57 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (2.16 for AF Elbasani, 1.01 for Partizani), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
AF Elbasani sit 4th on 14 points; Partizani are 10th on 4.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.