Over 1.5 goals@1.08
Over 1.5
92%
WORUEFA Champions League · League Stage - 4Wednesday, 4 November 2026 · Allwyn Arena
AEK Athens FC
29th · 3 pts18:45KICK-OFF WAT
Real Madrid
4th · 9 pts23% AEK
18% Draw
59% Real
OUR PICK
Real Madrid to win
Model probability 59% · fair odds
1.70
Expected goals
1.63 – 2.62
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.34X5.5021.70
Goals 2.5Over1.26Under4.72
Both scoreGG1.34NG3.77
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.26
Over 2.5
80%
Both teams to score@1.34
GG
75%
Double chance@1.22
12
82%
Season stats
AEK Athens FCReal Madrid1.0Goals per game3.3
2.7Conceded per game1.7
1.00Points per game3.00
33%Win rate100%
-5Goal difference5
7Form, last 5 (pts)9
AEK Athens FC form
LLWLA Panathinaikos2–0
A PAOK3–1
H Panetolikos5–0
A Manchester City5–1
Real Madrid form
WWWWWA Racing Santander0–3
A Barcelona1–2
H RB Leipzig4–1
H Sevilla4–1
A AS Roma3–4
Head to head
0
AEK
0
Draw
0
Real
These sides haven't met recently.
UEFA Champions League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain3+99
2Aston Villa3+99
3Liverpool3+59
4Real Madrid3+59
5Real Betis3+39
6VfB Stuttgart3+57
7Arsenal3+47
8Barcelona3+56
9Como3+56
10Manchester City3+46
Match preview
Our model makes Real Madrid clear favourites, giving them a 59% chance of winning against 18% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.70 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.3 goals in total (1.63 for AEK Athens FC, 2.62 for Real Madrid), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
AEK Athens FC sit 29th on 3 points; Real Madrid are 4th on 9.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.