Over 1.5 goals@1.14
Over 1.5
88%
NEDEredivisie · Matchday 12Saturday, 7 November 2026 · WerkTalent Stadion
ADO Den Haag
17th · 6 pts18:45KICK-OFF WAT
Sparta Rotterdam
11th · 12 pts39% ADO
22% Draw
39% Sparta
OUR PICK
Sparta Rotterdam to win
Model probability 39% · fair odds
2.55
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.82
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.57X4.5722.55
Goals 2.5Over1.42Under3.14
Both scoreGG1.43NG3.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.42
Over 2.5
70%
Both teams to score@1.43
GG
70%
Double chance@1.28
12
78%
Season stats
ADO Den HaagSparta Rotterdam1.2Goals per game1.8
2.2Conceded per game2.4
0.55Points per game1.09
9%Win rate27%
-11Goal difference-6
5Form, last 5 (pts)7
ADO Den Haag form
LDLWDA PEC Zwolle1–0
A Excelsior '311–1
H Heerenveen2–3
H PSV Eindhoven2–1
A Telstar2–2
Sparta Rotterdam form
WDLWDA Groningen2–3
H Fortuna Sittard2–2
H Ajax1–2
H Willem II3–2
A GO Ahead Eagles3–3
Head to head
1
ADO
1
Draw
3
Sparta
Jul 2025ADO Den Haag – Sparta Rotterdam0–2
Mar 2025ADO Den Haag – Sparta Rotterdam0–2
Jul 2024Sparta Rotterdam – ADO Den Haag1–1
Dec 2023ADO Den Haag – Sparta Rotterdam2–0
Aug 2023ADO Den Haag – Sparta Rotterdam1–2
Eredivisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Feyenoord11+2125
2Ajax11+1724
3PSV Eindhoven11+2223
4Twente11+1823
5AZ Alkmaar11+720
6Fortuna Sittard11019
7Heerenveen11+618
8Groningen11+215
9Cambuur11+115
10GO Ahead Eagles11-414
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: ADO Den Haag 39%, the draw 22%, Sparta Rotterdam 39%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.55 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.6 goals in total (1.81 for ADO Den Haag, 1.82 for Sparta Rotterdam), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
ADO Den Haag sit 17th on 6 points; Sparta Rotterdam are 11th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.