Over 1.5 goals@1.10
Over 1.5
91%
NEDEredivisie · Matchday 9Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Bingoal Stadion
ADO Den Haag
17th · 6 pts2–1FULL TIME
PSV Eindhoven
3rd · 23 pts10% ADO
13% Draw
77% PSV
OUR PICK
PSV Eindhoven to win
Model probability 77% · fair odds
1.30
Expected goals
1.04 – 3.04
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X2110.23X7.5521.30
Goals 2.5Over1.30Under4.10
Both scoreGG1.62NG2.48
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.30
Over 2.5
77%
Both teams to score@1.62
GG
62%
Double chance@1.11
X2
90%
Season stats
ADO Den HaagPSV Eindhoven1.2Goals per game3.2
2.2Conceded per game1.2
0.55Points per game2.09
9%Win rate64%
-11Goal difference22
5Form, last 5 (pts)7
ADO Den Haag form
LDLWDA PEC Zwolle1–0
A Excelsior '311–1
H Heerenveen2–3
H PSV Eindhoven2–1
A Telstar2–2
PSV Eindhoven form
WDWLLH Willem II7–0
H Feyenoord1–1
A FC Porto0–1
A ADO Den Haag2–1
A RB Leipzig1–0
Head to head
1
ADO
1
Draw
3
PSV
Oct 2026ADO Den Haag – PSV Eindhoven2–1
Mar 2023PSV Eindhoven – ADO Den Haag3–1
Feb 2021ADO Den Haag – PSV Eindhoven2–2
Nov 2020PSV Eindhoven – ADO Den Haag4–0
Feb 2020ADO Den Haag – PSV Eindhoven0–3
Eredivisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Feyenoord11+2125
2Ajax11+1724
3PSV Eindhoven11+2223
4Twente11+1823
5AZ Alkmaar11+720
6Fortuna Sittard11019
7Heerenveen11+618
8Groningen11+215
9Cambuur11+115
10GO Ahead Eagles11-414
Match preview
Our model makes PSV Eindhoven clear favourites, giving them a 77% chance of winning against 13% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.30 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.1 goals in total (1.04 for ADO Den Haag, 3.04 for PSV Eindhoven), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
ADO Den Haag sit 17th on 6 points; PSV Eindhoven are 3rd on 23.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.