Over 1.5 goals@1.34
Over 1.5
74%
NEDEredivisie · Matchday 10Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Bingoal Stadion
ADO Den Haag
17th · 6 pts2–3FULL TIME
Heerenveen
7th · 18 pts24% ADO
25% Draw
51% Heerenveen
OUR PICK
Heerenveen to win
Model probability 51% · fair odds
1.97
Expected goals
1.04 – 1.62
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.11X4.0321.97
Goals 2.5Over1.89Under1.99
Both scoreGG1.93NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.99
Under 2.5
50%
Both teams to score@1.93
GG
52%
Double chance@1.32
X2
76%
Season stats
ADO Den HaagHeerenveen1.2Goals per game1.7
2.2Conceded per game1.2
0.55Points per game1.64
9%Win rate45%
-11Goal difference6
5Form, last 5 (pts)12
ADO Den Haag form
LDLWDA PEC Zwolle1–0
A Excelsior '311–1
H Heerenveen2–3
H PSV Eindhoven2–1
A Telstar2–2
Heerenveen form
WWWWLH NEC Nijmegen1–0
A Excelsior Maassluis0–2
A ADO Den Haag2–3
H Excelsior4–0
A PSV Eindhoven2–0
Head to head
0
ADO
3
Draw
2
Heerenveen
Oct 2026ADO Den Haag – Heerenveen2–3
Mar 2021Heerenveen – ADO Den Haag3–0
Nov 2020ADO Den Haag – Heerenveen1–1
Feb 2020Heerenveen – ADO Den Haag2–2
Nov 2019ADO Den Haag – Heerenveen1–1
Eredivisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Feyenoord11+2125
2Ajax11+1724
3PSV Eindhoven11+2223
4Twente11+1823
5AZ Alkmaar11+720
6Fortuna Sittard11019
7Heerenveen11+618
8Groningen11+215
9Cambuur11+115
10GO Ahead Eagles11-414
Match preview
Our model makes Heerenveen slight favourites, giving them a 51% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.97 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.04 for ADO Den Haag, 1.62 for Heerenveen), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
ADO Den Haag sit 17th on 6 points; Heerenveen are 7th on 18.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.