Over 1.5 goals@1.33
Over 1.5
75%
AUSA-League · Matchday 4Sunday, 8 November 2026 · Coopers Stadium
Adelaide United
12th · 0 pts07:00KICK-OFF WAT
Melbourne Victory
9th · 2 pts30% Adelaide
25% Draw
44% Melbourne
OUR PICK
Melbourne Victory to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.25
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.51
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.31X3.9422.25
Goals 2.5Over1.97Under1.93
Both scoreGG1.84NG2.05
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.97
Over 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.84
GG
54%
Double chance@1.34
12
75%
Season stats
Adelaide UnitedMelbourne Victory0.5Goals per game1.0
3.0Conceded per game1.3
0.00Points per game0.67
0%Win rate0%
-5Goal difference-1
0Form, last 5 (pts)2
Adelaide United form
LLLWWA Perth Glory4–0
H Home United0–2
A Sydney2–1
A BG Pathum United1–2
A Perth Glory1–3
Melbourne Victory form
DLDLWH Central Coast Mariners1–1
A Persib Bandung2–0
H Melbourne City1–1
A Wellington Phoenix2–1
H FC Seoul3–0
Head to head
2
Adelaide
1
Draw
2
Melbourne
Feb 2026Melbourne Victory – Adelaide United1–1
Jan 2026Adelaide United – Melbourne Victory2–1
Dec 2025Melbourne Victory – Adelaide United2–1
Mar 2025Melbourne Victory – Adelaide United5–3
Jan 2025Adelaide United – Melbourne Victory3–2
A-League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Wellington Phoenix3+69
2Western Sydney Wanderers3+35
3Macarthur3+15
4Brisbane Roar2+14
5Sydney304
6Auckland3-14
7Melbourne City3-14
8Perth Glory3+23
9Melbourne Victory3-12
10Central Coast Mariners3-22
Match preview
Our model makes Melbourne Victory slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.25 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.20 for Adelaide United, 1.51 for Melbourne Victory), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Adelaide United sit 12th on 0 points; Melbourne Victory are 9th on 2.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.