Over 1.5 goals@1.40
Over 1.5
72%
ESPSegunda División · Matchday 12Sunday, 1 November 2026 · Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube
AD Ceuta FC
22nd · 5 pts0–1LIVE 54'
Sporting Gijon
8th · 19 pts27% AD
26% Draw
47% Sporting
OUR PICK
Sporting Gijon to win
Model probability 47% · fair odds
2.14
Expected goals
1.05 – 1.47
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.70X3.8222.14
Goals 2.5Over2.05Under1.86
Both scoreGG2.00NG1.89
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.86
Under 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@2.00
GG
50%
Double chance@1.35
12
74%
Season stats
AD Ceuta FCSporting Gijon0.9Goals per game1.0
2.3Conceded per game1.2
0.45Points per game1.73
9%Win rate55%
-15Goal difference-2
4Form, last 5 (pts)9
AD Ceuta FC form
No recent matches.
Sporting Gijon form
DWLWWA AD Ceuta FC0–0
A Guijuelo1–3
A Castellón4–0
H Albacete2–1
A Cadiz0–1
Head to head
0
AD
0
Draw
0
Sporting
These sides haven't met recently.
Segunda División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Castellón11+1826
2Almeria12+1326
3Eibar12+723
4Girona12+1121
5Granada CF11+420
6Burgos11+420
7Mallorca11+719
8Sporting Gijon11-219
9Oviedo11+318
10Sabadell12+117
Match preview
Our model makes Sporting Gijon slight favourites, giving them a 47% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.14 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.05 for AD Ceuta FC, 1.47 for Sporting Gijon), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
AD Ceuta FC sit 22nd on 5 points; Sporting Gijon are 8th on 19.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.