Over 1.5 goals@1.56
Over 1.5
64%
ESPSegunda División · Matchday 9Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube
AD Ceuta FC
22nd · 5 pts1–2FULL TIME
Sabadell
10th · 17 pts22% AD
28% Draw
50% Sabadell
OUR PICK
Sabadell to win
Model probability 50% · fair odds
2.01
Expected goals
0.82 – 1.37
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.46X3.6022.01
Goals 2.5Over2.55Under1.60
Both scoreGG2.25NG1.72
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.60
Under 2.5
63%
Both teams to score@1.72
NG
58%
Double chance@1.29
X2
78%
Season stats
AD Ceuta FCSabadell0.8Goals per game1.0
2.3Conceded per game0.9
0.42Points per game1.42
8%Win rate33%
-17Goal difference1
1Form, last 5 (pts)5
AD Ceuta FC form
LWLLLH Sporting Gijon0–2
A Poblense1–2
A Cadiz3–1
H Oviedo1–2
H Sabadell1–2
Sabadell form
LDLWDA Albacete2–1
H Tenerife1–1
A Burgos1–0
A AD Ceuta FC1–2
H FC Andorra0–0
Head to head
0
AD
0
Draw
1
Sabadell
Oct 2026AD Ceuta FC – Sabadell1–2
Segunda División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Castellón12+1827
2Almeria12+1326
3Eibar12+723
4Granada CF12+623
5Mallorca12+822
6Sporting Gijon12022
7Girona12+1121
8Burgos12+421
9Oviedo12+218
10Sabadell12+117
Match preview
Our model makes Sabadell slight favourites, giving them a 50% chance of winning against 28% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.01 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.2 goals in total (0.82 for AD Ceuta FC, 1.37 for Sabadell), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
AD Ceuta FC sit 22nd on 5 points; Sabadell are 10th on 17.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.