Over 1.5 goals@1.29
Over 1.5
78%
ESPSegunda División · Matchday 10Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube
AD Ceuta FC
22nd · 5 pts1–2FULL TIME
Oviedo
9th · 18 pts21% AD
23% Draw
56% Oviedo
OUR PICK
Oviedo to win
Model probability 56% · fair odds
1.80
Expected goals
1.03 – 1.81
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.68X4.3521.80
Goals 2.5Over1.85Under2.05
Both scoreGG1.86NG2.05
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.85
Over 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.86
GG
54%
Double chance@1.27
X2
79%
Season stats
AD Ceuta FCOviedo0.8Goals per game1.4
2.3Conceded per game1.3
0.42Points per game1.50
8%Win rate42%
-17Goal difference2
1Form, last 5 (pts)7
AD Ceuta FC form
LWLLLH Sporting Gijon0–2
A Poblense1–2
A Cadiz3–1
H Oviedo1–2
H Sabadell1–2
Oviedo form
LDDWWH Las Palmas2–3
A Numancia3–3
A Almeria2–2
A AD Ceuta FC1–2
H Eibar3–1
Head to head
0
AD
0
Draw
1
Oviedo
Oct 2026AD Ceuta FC – Oviedo1–2
Segunda División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Castellón12+1827
2Almeria12+1326
3Eibar12+723
4Granada CF12+623
5Mallorca12+822
6Sporting Gijon12022
7Girona12+1121
8Burgos12+421
9Oviedo12+218
10Sabadell12+117
Match preview
Our model makes Oviedo clear favourites, giving them a 56% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.80 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.03 for AD Ceuta FC, 1.81 for Oviedo), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
AD Ceuta FC sit 22nd on 5 points; Oviedo are 9th on 18.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.