Over 1.5 goals@1.75
Over 1.5
57%
ENGLeague Two · Matchday 14Saturday, 31 October 2026 · The Crown Ground
Accrington ST
9th · 19 pts1–1FULL TIME
Northampton
20th · 14 pts46% Accrington
31% Draw
23% Northampton
OUR PICK
Accrington ST to win
Model probability 46% · fair odds
2.16
Expected goals
1.18 – 0.74
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.16X3.2724.32
Goals 2.5Over3.14Under1.43
Both scoreGG2.62NG1.57
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.43
Under 2.5
70%
Both teams to score@1.57
NG
64%
Double chance@1.30
1X
77%
Season stats
Accrington STNorthampton1.6Goals per game0.8
1.2Conceded per game0.8
1.36Points per game1.17
29%Win rate25%
6Goal difference0
9Form, last 5 (pts)8
Accrington ST form
DWDWDH Northampton1–1
A Rochdale0–5
A York1–1
H Gillingham3–1
A Oldham0–0
Northampton form
DWLWDA Accrington ST1–1
H Colchester2–0
H Tranmere0–1
A Grimsby0–2
A York1–1
Head to head
1
Accrington
3
Draw
1
Northampton
Oct 2026Accrington ST – Northampton1–1
Feb 2021Accrington ST – Northampton0–0
Nov 2020Northampton – Accrington ST0–1
Dec 2015Northampton – Accrington ST1–0
Aug 2015Accrington ST – Northampton1–1
League Two table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Salford City14+1031
2Barnet13+1026
3Walsall13+922
4Crewe14022
5Cheltenham14-221
6Grimsby14+620
7York14+320
8Gillingham14+120
9Accrington ST14+619
10Chesterfield14+319
Match preview
Our model makes Accrington ST slight favourites, giving them a 46% chance of winning against 31% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.16 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.9 goals in total (1.18 for Accrington ST, 0.74 for Northampton), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Accrington ST sit 9th on 19 points; Northampton are 20th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.