Over 1.5 goals@1.14
Over 1.5
88%
ENGLeague Two · Matchday 9Saturday, 3 October 2026 · The Wham Stadium
Accrington ST
9th · 19 pts2–0FULL TIME
Cheltenham
5th · 21 pts54% Accrington
21% Draw
26% Cheltenham
OUR PICK
Accrington ST to win
Model probability 54% · fair odds
1.87
Expected goals
2.16 – 1.46
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.87X4.8423.87
Goals 2.5Over1.43Under3.14
Both scoreGG1.47NG2.95
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.43
Over 2.5
70%
Both teams to score@1.47
GG
68%
Double chance@1.26
12
79%
Season stats
Accrington STCheltenham1.6Goals per game1.6
1.2Conceded per game1.8
1.36Points per game1.50
29%Win rate43%
6Goal difference-2
9Form, last 5 (pts)6
Accrington ST form
DWDWDH Northampton1–1
A Rochdale0–5
A York1–1
H Gillingham3–1
A Oldham0–0
Cheltenham form
LWWLDA Tranmere3–1
H Newport County1–0
H Fleetwood Town4–2
A Oldham4–1
H Tottenham Hotspur U212–2
Head to head
2
Accrington
1
Draw
2
Cheltenham
Oct 2026Accrington ST – Cheltenham2–0
Jan 2026Accrington ST – Cheltenham3–1
Sept 2025Cheltenham – Accrington ST1–0
Jan 2025Accrington ST – Cheltenham0–0
Oct 2024Cheltenham – Accrington ST2–1
League Two table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Salford City14+1031
2Barnet13+1026
3Walsall13+922
4Crewe14022
5Cheltenham14-221
6Grimsby14+620
7York14+320
8Gillingham14+120
9Accrington ST14+619
10Chesterfield14+319
Match preview
Our model makes Accrington ST slight favourites, giving them a 54% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.87 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.6 goals in total (2.16 for Accrington ST, 1.46 for Cheltenham), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Accrington ST sit 9th on 19 points; Cheltenham are 5th on 21.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.