Over 1.5 goals@1.63
Over 1.5
61%
ARGPrimera Nacional · Matchday 34Saturday, 17 October 2026 · La Quema Stadium
Acassuso
17th · 35 pts0–0FULL TIME
Deportivo Madryn
4th · 60 pts22% Acassuso
29% Draw
50% Deportivo
OUR PICK
Deportivo Madryn to win
Model probability 50% · fair odds
2.01
Expected goals
0.76 – 1.31
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.62X3.4922.01
Goals 2.5Over2.77Under1.52
Both scoreGG2.42NG1.64
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.52
Under 2.5
66%
Both teams to score@1.64
NG
61%
Double chance@1.28
X2
78%
Season stats
AcassusoDeportivo Madryn0.7Goals per game1.4
1.0Conceded per game0.9
0.97Points per game1.67
22%Win rate44%
-10Goal difference21
6Form, last 5 (pts)10
Acassuso form
DDDWLH Ferro Carril Oeste0–0
A Central Norte0–0
H Deportivo Madryn0–0
A Defensores De Belgrano0–3
H Ciudad de Bolívar0–1
Deportivo Madryn form
WWDLWA San Miguel0–1
H San Telmo4–1
A Acassuso0–0
H Chaco For Ever1–2
A Ferro Carril Oeste0–2
Head to head
0
Acassuso
2
Draw
0
Deportivo
Oct 2026Acassuso – Deportivo Madryn0–0
May 2026Deportivo Madryn – Acassuso0–0
Primera Nacional table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Godoy Cruz36+2066
2Ferro Carril Oeste36+766
3Deportivo Moron36+1661
4Deportivo Madryn36+2160
5Colon Santa Fe36+1860
6Almirante Brown36+451
7Ciudad de Bolívar36-351
8CA Estudiantes36049
9Chaco For Ever36+246
10Los Andes36+143
Match preview
Our model makes Deportivo Madryn slight favourites, giving them a 50% chance of winning against 29% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.01 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.1 goals in total (0.76 for Acassuso, 1.31 for Deportivo Madryn), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Acassuso sit 17th on 35 points; Deportivo Madryn are 4th on 60.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.