Over 1.5 goals@2.18
Over 1.5
46%
ARGPrimera Nacional · Matchday 32Saturday, 3 October 2026 · La Quema Stadium
Acassuso
17th · 35 pts0–1FULL TIME
Ciudad de Bolívar
7th · 51 pts33% Acassuso
36% Draw
31% Ciudad
OUR PICK
Draw
Model probability 36% · fair odds
2.78
Expected goals
0.80 – 0.75
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.99X2.7823.27
Goals 2.5Over4.72Under1.26
Both scoreGG3.25NG1.41
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.26
Under 2.5
80%
Both teams to score@1.41
NG
71%
Double chance@1.44
1X
69%
Season stats
AcassusoCiudad de Bolívar0.7Goals per game0.8
1.0Conceded per game0.9
0.97Points per game1.42
22%Win rate36%
-10Goal difference-3
6Form, last 5 (pts)9
Acassuso form
DDDWLH Ferro Carril Oeste0–0
A Central Norte0–0
H Deportivo Madryn0–0
A Defensores De Belgrano0–3
H Ciudad de Bolívar0–1
Ciudad de Bolívar form
LLWWWA Deportivo Moron2–0
H Colon Santa Fe0–2
A San Miguel1–2
H San Telmo1–0
A Acassuso0–1
Head to head
0
Acassuso
0
Draw
2
Ciudad
Oct 2026Acassuso – Ciudad de Bolívar0–1
May 2026Ciudad de Bolívar – Acassuso1–0
Primera Nacional table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Godoy Cruz36+2066
2Ferro Carril Oeste36+766
3Deportivo Moron36+1661
4Deportivo Madryn36+2160
5Colon Santa Fe36+1860
6Almirante Brown36+451
7Ciudad de Bolívar36-351
8CA Estudiantes36049
9Chaco For Ever36+246
10Los Andes36+143
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Acassuso 33%, the draw 36%, Ciudad de Bolívar 31%.
Our fair price for "Draw" is 2.78 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.6 goals in total (0.80 for Acassuso, 0.75 for Ciudad de Bolívar), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Acassuso sit 17th on 35 points; Ciudad de Bolívar are 7th on 51.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.