Over 1.5 goals@1.20
Over 1.5
83%
PORPrimeira Liga · Matchday 10Sunday, 1 November 2026 · Estadio do Fontelo
Academico Viseu
6th · 20 pts2–1FULL TIME
Rio Ave
16th · 7 pts71% Academico
17% Draw
12% Rio
OUR PICK
Academico Viseu to win
Model probability 71% · fair odds
1.41
Expected goals
2.36 – 0.86
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.41X5.7728.35
Goals 2.5Over1.60Under2.48
Both scoreGG1.91NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.60
Over 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.91
GG
52%
Double chance@1.14
1X
88%
Season stats
Academico ViseuRio Ave1.5Goals per game0.9
1.2Conceded per game2.3
2.00Points per game0.70
60%Win rate20%
3Goal difference-14
15Form, last 5 (pts)4
Academico Viseu form
WLWLWH Rio Ave2–1
A FC Porto1–0
A Sporting CP1–2
A Fátima1–0
H Estoril2–1
Rio Ave form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Academico
0
Draw
0
Rio
These sides haven't met recently.
Primeira Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Porto10+2130
2Benfica9+1822
3Sporting CP10+1221
4Santa Clara10+921
5Arouca10+620
6Academico Viseu10+320
7GIL Vicente9+114
8SC Braga10+114
9Moreirense10-414
10Alverca9011
Match preview
Our model makes Academico Viseu clear favourites, giving them a 71% chance of winning against 17% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.41 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (2.36 for Academico Viseu, 0.86 for Rio Ave), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Academico Viseu sit 6th on 20 points; Rio Ave are 16th on 7.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.