Over 1.5 goals@1.36
Over 1.5
73%
PORPrimeira Liga · Matchday 8Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Estadio do Fontelo
Academico Viseu
6th · 20 pts2–1FULL TIME
Estoril
18th · 2 pts71% Academico
19% Draw
10% Estoril
OUR PICK
Academico Viseu to win
Model probability 71% · fair odds
1.42
Expected goals
2.01 – 0.60
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.42X5.1829.97
Goals 2.5Over1.97Under1.94
Both scoreGG2.42NG1.64
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.94
Under 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.64
NG
61%
Double chance@1.11
1X
90%
Season stats
Academico ViseuEstoril1.5Goals per game0.5
1.2Conceded per game1.9
2.00Points per game0.20
60%Win rate0%
3Goal difference-14
15Form, last 5 (pts)0
Academico Viseu form
WLWLWH Rio Ave2–1
A FC Porto1–0
A Sporting CP1–2
A Fátima1–0
H Estoril2–1
Estoril form
LLDLLA FC Porto4–0
H Moreirense1–3
A Salgueiros1–1
A Academico Viseu2–1
H Casa Pia1–2
Head to head
2
Academico
0
Draw
3
Estoril
Oct 2026Academico Viseu – Estoril2–1
Dec 2022Academico Viseu – Estoril3–2
Feb 2021Estoril – Academico Viseu3–0
Sept 2020Academico Viseu – Estoril0–2
Nov 2019Estoril – Academico Viseu3–1
Primeira Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Porto10+2130
2Benfica9+1822
3Sporting CP10+1221
4Santa Clara10+921
5Arouca10+620
6Academico Viseu10+320
7GIL Vicente9+114
8SC Braga10+114
9Moreirense10-414
10Alverca9011
Match preview
Our model makes Academico Viseu clear favourites, giving them a 71% chance of winning against 19% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.42 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (2.01 for Academico Viseu, 0.60 for Estoril), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Academico Viseu sit 6th on 20 points; Estoril are 18th on 2.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.