PORSegunda Liga · Matchday 8Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Estádio Cidade de Coimbra

Academica

6th · 15 pts

4–0FULL TIME

Leixoes

13th · 10 pts

43% Academica

25% Draw

32% Leixoes

OUR PICK

Academica to win

Model probability 43% · fair odds

2.35

Expected goals

1.51 – 1.28

Confidence

Low

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X212.35X3.9823.10

Goals 2.5Over1.89Under2.01

Both scoreGG1.78NG2.14

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.30

Over 1.5

77%

Over/Under 2.5@1.89

Over 2.5

53%

Both teams to score@1.78

56%

Double chance@1.34

75%

Season stats

AcademicaLeixoes

1.7Goals per game1.1

1.3Conceded per game1.6

1.67Points per game1.11

56%Win rate33%

3Goal difference-4

6Form, last 5 (pts)4

Academica form

LWWWW

A Vizela2–1

H Leixoes4–0

H Amarante3–2

A União de Leiria0–2

A Real1–4

Leixoes form

LLLLW

H Sporting CP B1–2

A Academica4–0

A Vianense1–0

H FC Porto B1–2

A Cinfães0–4

Head to head

Academica

Draw

Leixoes

Oct 2026Academica – Leixoes4–0

Jan 2022Academica – Leixoes1–0

Aug 2021Leixoes – Academica2–1

May 2021Leixoes – Academica1–2

Jan 2021Academica – Leixoes1–1

Segunda Liga table

#TeamGPGDPts

1Sporting CP B9+821

2Lusitânia Lourosa9+719

3Benfica B9+517

4Penafiel8+1016

5Farense9+415

6Academica9+315

7Tondela9+215

8Vizela9+114

9União de Leiria9+214

10AVS9+112

Match preview

Our model makes Academica slight favourites, giving them a 43% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.

Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.35 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.51 for Academica, 1.28 for Leixoes), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.

Academica sit 6th on 15 points; Leixoes are 13th on 10.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

Discuss on Telegram More Segunda Liga tips