Over 1.5 goals@1.31
Over 1.5
76%
PORSegunda Liga · Matchday 10Saturday, 7 November 2026 · Estadio EFAPEL Cidade de Coimbra
Academica
6th · 15 pts16:30KICK-OFF WAT
Amarante
14th · 8 pts58% Academica
23% Draw
19% Amarante
OUR PICK
Academica to win
Model probability 58% · fair odds
1.72
Expected goals
1.83 – 0.94
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.72X4.4125.25
Goals 2.5Over1.91Under1.97
Both scoreGG1.95NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.91
Over 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.95
GG
51%
Double chance@1.24
1X
81%
Season stats
AcademicaAmarante1.7Goals per game0.9
1.3Conceded per game1.3
1.67Points per game0.89
56%Win rate22%
3Goal difference-4
6Form, last 5 (pts)4
Academica form
LWWWWA Vizela2–1
H Leixoes4–0
H Amarante3–2
A União de Leiria0–2
A Real1–4
Amarante form
WLLLWH FC Porto B2–1
A Torreense1–0
A Academica3–2
H Portimonense1–2
A Ponte da Barca0–2
Head to head
1
Academica
2
Draw
1
Amarante
Oct 2026Academica – Amarante3–2
Apr 2026Academica – Amarante1–1
Mar 2026Amarante – Academica1–1
Oct 2023Amarante – Academica1–0
Segunda Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Sporting CP B9+821
2Penafiel9+1119
3Lusitânia Lourosa9+719
4Benfica B9+517
5Farense9+415
6Academica9+315
7Tondela9+215
8Vizela9+114
9União de Leiria9+214
10AVS9+112
Match preview
Our model makes Academica clear favourites, giving them a 58% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.72 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.83 for Academica, 0.94 for Amarante), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Academica sit 6th on 15 points; Amarante are 14th on 8.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.